The Epidemiology and Distribution of COVID-19

By Somya Sharma 

 Disclaimer: The information for the upcoming series of posts on the Coronavirus has been collated from a range of sources and the purpose is to provide insight into the virus from an objective lens. These posts are accurate to the time of publication; however, our knowledge of the virus is rapidly evolving, so we recommend for you to stay up to date with latest news broadcasts and research.   

 In December 2019, Wuhan City in China saw an emergence of several cases of pneumonias. This was to be classified as a novel coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2. The source of the outbreak is thought to be from a wet animal market in Wuhan. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on 11th March - at that point it had reached 114 countries with over 4,000 fatalities. Since then, many countries have declared a state of national emergencies and lockdowns.
  
The virus epicenter has shifted from China, to Europe, and now moving to the US, as worldwide prevalence approaches towards one million cases and 49,000 deaths. The worst hit countries currently include Italy, Spain and USA: with the first two countries both having total cases of greater than 100,000 and total deaths greater than 10,000. The number of total cases in the US is approximately 215,000, and deaths around 5,000.  

 We can hypothesise that COVID-19 has been enabled to spread by circulating in communities undetected, as most manifestations of the virus are mild and the cardinal symptoms can be easily mistaken for influenza (commonly known as the flu). Additionally, the impact on Europe can be explained by its higher life expectancy (and therefore a greater over-70 population), socioeconomic inequality between Europe and China could suggest higher foreign travel (seen in the business hub of Italy, Milan capital of Lombardi in Italy).  

 Coronaviruses can affect anyone at any age, but risk is increased if the patient is:

  • Over the age of 65
  • Immuno-compromised (immunosuppressants following organ transplant, immunodeficiencies or receiving cancer treatment)
  • Severe lung conditions like asthma or cystic fibrosis
  • Obesity or underlying medical conditions such as renal failure, diabetes, heart conditions

The high-risk population should have been contacted by the NHS and advised with strict self-isolation. Currently the UK is facing a lockdown, meaning not leaving the house unless for essential travel to work (when working from home is not an option), to get supplies (groceries), or for exercise limited to once a day. Community isolation rules are in place to slow the spread of coronavirus and ‘flatten the curve’ to keep COVID-19 cases at a manageable number for the NHS.  

 References: 

  • https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-background-information/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-epidemiology-virology-and-clinical-features 
  • https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020 
  • https://theconversation.com/5-reasons-the-coronavirus-hit-italy-so-hard-134636 
  • https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/advice-for-people-at-high-risk/
  • https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

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